Over the last five months, Prof. Eric Bickel and PhD student Colin Small have been busy tracking and analyzing the forecasts provided by a range of COVID-19 forecasting models. They have compared these forecasts to a simple, one-parameter, forecasting model that they developed in mid-March. Surprisingly, they have found that their simple model performs as well as the best COVID-19 models and much better than many others. If you would like to learn more, please follow the link to a TexTalk they gave describing their work.